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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Oct 17 2021 5:59 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 170427
SWODY1
SPC AC 170426

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
A blocking mid-level ridge centered near/southwest of Greenland will
maintain considerable influence across eastern North America and the
Atlantic.  Large-scale troughing to its south-southwest appears
likely to progress only slowly eastward, but the base of this
feature  is forecast to gradually shift east of the southern
Atlantic Seaboard.  An associated surface cold front is expected to
clear Downeast Maine by 12Z this morning, and advance through the
central and southern Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. 
Warm mid-level temperatures evident in forecast soundings across the
Florida Peninsula are expected to generally suppress deep convective
development ahead of the front, but the maintenance of somewhat
better boundary-layer moisture across the Florida Keys vicinity
might contribute to isolated thunderstorm development late this
afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will
prevail across most areas east of the Rockies, in the wake of the
cold front, with generally negligible risk for thunderstorms through
this period.

Upstream, a significant mid-level short wave trough is forecast to
progress inland of the Pacific coast late today through tonight.  It
appears that this will include a 90-100 kt 500 mb jet streak digging
across the San Francisco Bay vicinity into the southern Sierra
Nevada, with a developing low to its northeast.  This is forecast to
be accompanied by substantive mid-level cooling (500 mb cold core of
-24 to -28C) across much of northern California, but mostly after
dark, with limited destabilization.  While the development of some
convective cells briefly becoming capable of producing lightning
might not be out the question, thunderstorm probabilities are being
maintained at less than 10 percent, at least for now.  

Farther east, beneath increasingly cyclonic mid-level flow ahead of
the digging impulse, southerly low-level return flow will be
accompanied by at least modest moistening across the northern
Mexican Plateau into the southern Rockies.  Associated weak
destabilization across the higher terrain of northwestern New Mexico
into the San Juan Mountains may become supportive of a few
thunderstorms by this evening, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent
associated with a perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/17/2021

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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